Trial logs in practice

equity-factor-pipeline is the first of the owner's projects to emit a trial log in the contract's format. olab-study projects evaluates each strategy family in it, and the full table is reports/tables/own_projects.csv.

Family	Own N	Sharpe	SR₀	DSR	Verdict	DSR at N = 613
composite	305	1.25	2.34	0.000	FAIL	0.000
investment	32	1.00	0.70	0.952	PASS	0.429
low_risk	32	0.80	0.45	0.957	PASS	0.734
momentum	66	0.60	0.73	0.261	FAIL	0.036
quality	44	0.98	0.63	0.951	PASS	0.678
replication	86	0.81	0.60	0.840	FAIL	0.595
size	8	0.09	0.05	0.588	FAIL	0.469
value	40	0.68	0.51	0.802	FAIL	0.412

Three families pass when each is judged alone. They were not found alone: the project ran 613 trials. At that count, no family reaches 0.95. investment fails outright, because the bar of 1.03 is above its Sharpe ratio of 1.00. Which count applies depends on whether the families were independent ideas or one search, so this table can't settle whether they're real. It does show that the verdict turns on that choice.

The memo discusses what this means for judging research.